Arsenal currently occupy the final Champions League spot, leapfrogging Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League table as results went their way at the weekend.
As attentions shift towards what could be another pivotal weekend in the Premier League, it’s worth pointing out the dreaded scenario that could deny Arsenal a return to the Champions League next season.
As things stand, the Gunners will go into Sunday’s London derby against West Ham United as favourites to win the top-four battle over Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United as well as David Moyes’ side – whose most realistic chance of Champions League football is by winning the Europa League.
However, by the time Arsenal kick-off at the London Stadium they will have dropped a place in the table should Spurs overcome Leicester City at home in the day’s early game. In this scenario, only a win for Mikel Arteta’s side would see them end the latest gameweek in fourth place.
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That would make for pleasant viewing for those with Arsenal connections and the simple maths is that if they win their remaining five matches of the season, they will seal a top-four finish for the first time since the 2015/2016 campaign.
Although, there could still be a lot of work to do for Arsenal to qualify for the Champions League next season – even if they win the top-four battle – this is because there is still a chance they will finish level on points with Spurs and Premier League rules state a play-off match will be arranged if the two clubs can’t be separated.
“If two or more clubs finish level in the table when competing for the title or European qualification, or when relegation is at stake, their records in the head-to-head matches will now be used to separate them,” a Premier League statement reads. “In previous seasons, teams involved in these specific battles who finished with the same points total, goal difference and number of goals scored would be pitted against each other in a play-off.
“If clubs still cannot be separated, the team who scored the most goals away from home in the head-to-head matches will get the highest position. Only if the clubs remain level in the table after this will a play-off be arranged, at a neutral ground, with the format, timing and venue being determined by the Premier League Board.”
This would create a potentially dreaded scenario for Arsenal as they could finish fourth – with an identical record to Spurs – but then lose the Champions League play-off which would see them qualify for the Europa League instead.
It should be pointed out that the chances of the north London rivals finishing on level on points, with an identical goal difference as well as head-to-head record and same goals scored and conceded are unlikely, but below are the set of results from the club’s remaining fixtures that would make this nightmare scenario a reality.
